Forecasting Indicators of Passenger Transportation by Road Transport
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.32515/2664-262X.2024.9(40).2.219-229Keywords:
time series, passenger traffic, number of transported passengers, approximation, forecastingAbstract
The development of the automotive industry is significantly influenced by changes in the socio-economic and socio-political situations in the country. These changes cause changes in such indicators of passenger transport as the number of transported passengers and passenger traffic. In recent years, there has been a tendency for these indicators to fall.
The purpose of this study is to obtain reliable short-term forecast estimates for the number of transported passengers and passenger traffic in the Kirovohrad region.
In the work, an analysis of statistical data on the number of transported passengers and passenger traffic of the Main Department of Statistics in the Kirovohrad Region was carried out.
For the analysis, standard methods of time series research were used using the Microsoft Excel 2016 software package and the Mathcad mathematical package for the analysis of statistical data and methods of forecasting their changes in a certain period.
Linear and exponential models of trend dependencies were chosen for passenger traffic.
The number of transported passengers was studied using linear and polynomial models of trend dependencies.
As a result of the work carried out on the analysis, statistical processing and forecasting of such indicators of passenger road transport as the number of transported passengers and passenger traffic, it was established that with the existing situation on the transportation market and the socio-political situation in the country, a decline in these indicators will be observed.
The application of adequate mathematical models of the behavior of passenger traffic and the number of transported passengers made it possible to determine the volume of passenger road transport and passenger traffic for the future period with a high degree of reliability. The results of the research can be used to determine the needs for material, technical, labor, and financial resources for the effective operation of road transport enterprises in the Kirovohrad region.
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Copyright (c) 2024 Iryna Filimonikhina, Marina Semeniuta, Serhiy Yakymenko
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