Analysis and Development Outlook for Road Transportation Services in Ternopil Region

Abstract

The article is devoted to a comprehensive analysis and determination of the development prospects for road transport in Ukraine, specifically focusing on the Ternopil region. The study covers the period from 2018 to 2025 and is based on a systematic analysis of open statistical data, which allows for the identification of key patterns in the transformation of freight and passenger turnover under dynamic economic and socio-political shifts. Special attention is paid to the structural aspects of fleet renewal, including the registration of passenger and freight vehicles, the development of the Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) segment, and the impact of regional infrastructure on transport efficiency.

At the current stage of development, the road transport sector exhibits high dynamism and flexibility, driven by the need to optimize logistic processes across various economic sectors and the adaptation of enterprises to crisis phenomena, particularly the full-scale military invasion. Road transport serves as a core element of the logistics system, ensuring mobility and continuity of operations even under challenging conditions. In Ukraine, road transport dominates the freight structure, accounting for over 75% of total freight volume. This trend is corroborated by statistical data for 2023–2024, when freight transportation across all modes increased by 108 million tons, of which road transport accounted for 84 million tons. Analysis of road freight turnover as a percentage of total freight turnover indicates an increase in share from 26% in 2022 to 30.9% in 2023, which is significantly higher than pre-war levels.

Passenger transportation also demonstrates a steady positive dynamic: the share of road transport in total passenger turnover rose from 39% to 41% during 2023–2024. As of October 1, 2025, passenger transportation across all modes totaled 1,634.9 million passengers, with 692.7 million (42%) carried by road (buses). These figures underscore the vital role of road transport in ensuring population mobility and the stability of economic processes.

The study highlights specific features of the Ternopil region, which, despite its distance from the active front line, shows a high level of adaptation within the transport sector. In 2022, an anomalous surge in passenger and freight vehicle registrations was observed: the number of new buses increased 2.3 times compared to 2021 (from 50 to 117 units), while freight vehicle registrations rose by 37% (from 1,124 to 1,541 units). This phenomenon is explained by both demographic factors related to the influx of internally displaced persons (IDPs) and the shift of logistical centers of gravity toward the western region of the country.

The development of the electric vehicle segment is particularly noted, characterized by stable exponential growth at both the national and regional levels. In the Ternopil region, the number of electric vehicles increased from 168 units in 2019 to a projected 2,256 units in 2025. Such progress reflects the global trend toward fleet greening and the digitalization of the transport industry. The primary drivers for EV adoption include operational economic efficiency, ease of maintenance, state support through tax incentives, and stimulating mechanisms for the rapid development of charging station infrastructure. By the end of 2025, 169 EV charging stations were operational in the Ternopil region, necessitating further expansion to ensure the seamless operation of electric transport.

Statistical analysis of capital investment in road freight transport shows a continuous increase since 2020, with the most significant jump recorded in 2023 (a 1.86-fold increase). This confirms the importance of road transport for the country's economic stability and logistical efficiency following the start of the full-scale invasion. The passenger segment showed relative stability, while the significant decrease in investment in 2022 is attributed to crisis circumstances that affected transportation dynamics and fleet renewal.

The study outlines key challenges and prospects for the development of the regional road transport system. In particular, it is necessary to increase vehicle utilization efficiency through technological modernization, the implementation of digital transport management systems, route optimization, and the integration of electric vehicles into the general fleet. A crucial direction is the development of maintenance infrastructure, including a network of filling stations, repair, and service centers, ensuring the logistical resilience of the region.

Analysis of regional characteristics shows that the Ternopil region plays a strategic role in the logistics processes of Western Ukraine, serving as a transit hub for both intra-regional and international transport. The positive dynamics of vehicle registrations in 2022–2023, particularly in the freight and passenger segments, demonstrate the region's adaptive capacity to changes in transport demand and the optimization of supply chains.

The research results indicate that road transport maintains a dominant role in Ukraine's transport structure, providing over 75% of freight flow and 42% of passenger turnover, while the electric transport segment shows the most resilient positive dynamic in terms of innovation and environmental sustainability. The need for a comprehensive approach to modernizing the road transport system is emphasized, including infrastructure development, technological fleet renewal, the implementation of digital solutions, and the promotion of greening through electric vehicles and alternative energy sources.

The scientific novelty of the article lies in the systematic analysis of regional and national road transport indicators within the context of economic and socio-political challenges, particularly martial law, as well as the identification of specific trends in the development of the electric vehicle segment. The practical significance of the study lies in the possibility of using the results for planning and optimizing the activities of road transport enterprises, developing logistical infrastructure, and forming effective state transport policies that contribute to the economic resilience and mobility of the region.