Methodological Aspects of Modeling and Assessing Regional Cargo Flows in Terminal Systems

Abstract

The scientific article analyzes and proposes a solution to a relevant scientific and practical problem — determining the objective needs of a specific region for the development of terminal intercity road freight transport systems. The author notes that the current stage of transport sector development is characterized by a steady trend toward increasing cargo nomenclature, fragmentation of shipment lots, and significant complexity of logistic links between business entities. Under such conditions, traditional approaches to organizing the transport process no longer ensure the necessary level of efficiency, leading to irrational use of rolling stock and overloading of warehouse infrastructure. The paper scientifically substantiates that the formation of a terminal network is a strategic direction for improving the quality of transport and forwarding services and optimizing the cooperative deliveries of industrial enterprises.

Fundamental attention in the study is paid to the development of the author's methodology for a comprehensive survey of freight flows, which serves as a mandatory prerequisite for the justified design of the future terminal network parameters. The proposed methodical approach is based on conducting a continuous survey of enterprises and organizations in the region, regardless of their departmental subordination or the current modes of transport they use. The author describes the stages of analysis in detail: from the primary identification of actual volumes, structure, and periodicity of freight flows to the construction of forecast correspondence matrices. Particular emphasis is placed on calculating the necessary material and technical resources of the system, including: optimal warehouse space, nomenclature of lifting and transport mechanisms, and the quantitative composition of the long-haul road train fleet.

The scientific novelty of the work is reinforced by the application of simulation modeling of the daily arrival of shipments at the terminal. Based on the calculations, the author proves that due to the extremely high amplitude of fluctuations in shipment frequency (from daily cycles to isolated quarterly requests), real distributions of freight flows deviate significantly from classical theoretical laws, such as normal, exponential, or Poisson distributions. This conclusion is of critical practical importance, as it confirms the impossibility of applying unified solutions and dictates the need for individual modeling for each separate logistics hub depending on the specifics of its client base.

Additionally, the paper presents an original topological model of the region, in which the studied territory is approximated as a collection of regular hexagons (districts). This geometric approach allows for high-precision calculation of average pickup and delivery distances within the terminal zone, as well as the construction of analytical dependencies of transport volumes on distance (Q-L graphs), even in situations where direct statistical information is incomplete or fragmented.

The practical significance of the results lies in creating an effective toolkit for management bodies and transport companies to justify the economic feasibility of terminal operations. The implementation of the proposed methods will contribute to a significant reduction in unit operating costs, ensuring the stable implementation of the "Just-in-Time" delivery principle and increasing the overall competitiveness of the region's transport system.